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Restructured from flat .tex/.pdf files into per-paper subdirectories. Added Antje Worring as co-author on all papers. Synced PDFs to pdfs/ for download site.
17 lines
995 B
TeX
17 lines
995 B
TeX
\section{Introduction}
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The threat from cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) is not binary. There is no single day when ``quantum breaks crypto.'' The timeline is gradual:
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\begin{enumerate}[leftmargin=2em]
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\item \textbf{2024}: NIST publishes FIPS 203 (ML-KEM), 204 (ML-DSA), 205 (SLH-DSA).
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\item \textbf{2025--2028}: Government mandates for PQ migration (NSA CNSA 2.0, NIST IR 8547).
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\item \textbf{2030--2035}: Estimated window for first CRQCs with $>$4,000 logical qubits.
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\item \textbf{2035+}: Potential for CRQCs capable of breaking 256-bit elliptic curves.
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\end{enumerate}
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A blockchain network that waits until CRQCs exist is already compromised: historical transactions signed with ECDSA can be retroactively forged. The ``harvest now, decrypt later'' attack means adversaries are already recording blockchain data for future quantum decryption.
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Migration must begin now, proceed gradually, and never require a flag day where every participant upgrades simultaneously.
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