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papers/lux-pq-migration/sections/07-nist-standardization-timeline.tex
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\section{NIST Standardization Timeline}
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{lll}
\toprule
\textbf{Date} & \textbf{Event} & \textbf{Impact on Migration} \\
\midrule
Aug 2024 & FIPS 203/204/205 published & Phase 1 basis established \\
2025 & NIST Round 4 candidates (HQC, BIKE) & Additional KEM options \\
2025--2026 & FIPS 140-3 HSM modules for PQ & HSM support for ML-DSA keys \\
2027 & NSA CNSA 2.0 mandate begins & Government users must deploy PQ \\
2030 & CNSA 2.0 full compliance deadline & Phase 2 trigger (government) \\
2033+ & Estimated CRQC threat window & Phase 3 trigger (if realized) \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{center}