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77 lines
2.8 KiB
TeX
77 lines
2.8 KiB
TeX
\documentclass[11pt,a4paper]{article}
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\usepackage{../shared/luxcover}
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\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
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\usepackage[T1]{fontenc}
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\usepackage{amsmath,amssymb,amsfonts,amsthm}
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\usepackage{graphicx}
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\usepackage{hyperref}
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\usepackage{algorithm}
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\usepackage{algpseudocode}
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\usepackage{xcolor}
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\usepackage{booktabs}
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\usepackage{enumitem}
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\usepackage{tikz}
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\usepackage{tabularx}
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\hypersetup{colorlinks=true,linkcolor=black,citecolor=blue,urlcolor=blue}
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\newtheorem{theorem}{Theorem}[section]
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\newtheorem{lemma}[theorem]{Lemma}
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\newtheorem{corollary}[theorem]{Corollary}
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\newtheorem{proposition}[theorem]{Proposition}
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\newtheorem{definition}{Definition}[section]
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\newtheorem{remark}{Remark}[section]
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\title{\textbf{Quantum Threat Model\\for Blockchain Infrastructure}}
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\author{
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Lux Research \\
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\textit{Lux Industries, Inc.}\\
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\texttt{[email protected]}
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}
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\date{Original: 2023\quad|\quad Revised: February 2026}
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\begin{document}
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\luxcoverpage
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\begin{abstract}
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We present a systematic threat model for quantum computing attacks against blockchain
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infrastructure. Unlike prior analyses that focus narrowly on signature forgery, we
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enumerate the full attack surface: mempool public key exposure, validator signature
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forgery, retroactive chain compromise via historical transaction replay, bridge key
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extraction, and oracle manipulation through forged attestations. We provide timeline
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estimates for cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) based on published
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hardware roadmaps from IBM, Google, and PsiQuantum, concluding that a
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$30$--$50\%$ probability of CRQC existence by 2035 (exceeding $50\%$ before 2040)
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mandates immediate defensive action.
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We perform an economic analysis showing that the cost of hybrid post-quantum deployment
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(approximately 15\% throughput overhead and 1.2\,KB additional signature data per epoch)
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is negligible compared to the expected loss from a successful quantum attack on a major
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blockchain (total value at risk exceeding \$500\,billion across all chains). The
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rational strategy is immediate hybrid deployment, not wait-and-see. We conclude with
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concrete recommendations for blockchain protocol designers.
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\textbf{Keywords}: quantum computing, blockchain security, Shor's algorithm,
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Grover's algorithm, post-quantum migration, threat model
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\end{abstract}
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\tableofcontents
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\newpage
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%% ========================================================================
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%% 1. INTRODUCTION
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%% ========================================================================
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\input{sections/01-introduction}
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\input{sections/02-shor-s-algorithm-impact-on-blockchain-pr}
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\input{sections/03-grover-s-algorithm-hash-function-impact}
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\input{sections/04-blockchain-specific-attack-vectors}
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\input{sections/05-timeline-estimates-for-cryptographically}
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\input{sections/06-economic-analysis}
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\input{sections/07-recommendations}
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\input{sections/99-conclusion}
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\end{document}
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