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Restructured from flat .tex/.pdf files into per-paper subdirectories. Added Antje Worring as co-author on all papers. Synced PDFs to pdfs/ for download site.
78 lines
2.5 KiB
TeX
78 lines
2.5 KiB
TeX
\section{Economic Analysis}
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\label{sec:economics}
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\subsection{Cost of Not Migrating}
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We estimate the total value at risk from quantum attacks on blockchain infrastructure:
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\begin{table}[ht]
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\centering
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\caption{Estimated value at risk from quantum attacks (as of Q1 2026).}
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\label{tab:value-at-risk}
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\begin{tabular}{lr}
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\toprule
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\textbf{Category} & \textbf{Value at Risk (USD)} \\
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\midrule
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Bitcoin (P2PK + reused P2PKH outputs) & \$180B \\
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Ethereum (all accounts that sent $\geq 1$ tx) & \$240B \\
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Cross-chain bridge TVL & \$12B \\
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DeFi protocol TVL (EVM chains) & \$85B \\
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Stablecoin supply (ECDSA-secured) & \$160B \\
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\midrule
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\textbf{Total} & $>\$500$\textbf{B} \\
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\bottomrule
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\end{tabular}
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\end{table}
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The expected loss under a 30\% probability of CRQC by 2035 is:
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\[
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E[\text{loss}] = 0.30 \times \$500\text{B} = \$150\text{B}
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\]
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\subsection{Cost of Hybrid Deployment}
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\begin{table}[ht]
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\centering
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\caption{Estimated cost of hybrid post-quantum deployment.}
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\label{tab:migration-cost}
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\begin{tabular}{lr}
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\toprule
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\textbf{Cost Category} & \textbf{Estimate} \\
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\midrule
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Engineering (protocol-level changes) & \$5M--\$20M \\
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Throughput overhead (15\% reduction) & Negligible \\
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Storage overhead (248 B/epoch) & $<$100 MB/year \\
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Validator hardware upgrades & \$0 (software update) \\
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Audit and formal verification & \$2M--\$5M \\
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\midrule
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\textbf{Total one-time cost} & \$7M--\$25M \\
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\bottomrule
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\end{tabular}
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\end{table}
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The cost-benefit ratio is overwhelming: \$25M investment to protect against \$150B
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expected loss, a ratio of $1:6{,}000$.
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\subsection{Game-Theoretic Argument}
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Even if the probability of CRQC is low (say 5\% by 2030), the rational strategy is
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still immediate deployment because:
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\begin{enumerate}[leftmargin=2em]
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\item The cost of deployment is fixed and bounded.
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\item The cost of a successful quantum attack is unbounded (total chain compromise).
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\item Hybrid deployment has no downside: it cannot make security \emph{worse} because
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the classical component remains as a fallback.
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\item The ``wait for certainty'' strategy fails because migration takes years, and
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by the time CRQC is certain, migration may not complete in time.
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\end{enumerate}
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This is a classical insurance argument: the premium (deployment cost) is negligible
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relative to the insured value, and the policy has no exclusions (hybrid is strictly
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additive).
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%% ========================================================================
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%% 7. RECOMMENDATIONS
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%% ========================================================================
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